China’s One-child policy and negative effects of population
One-child policy was introduced in 1980, as a response to the “Later, Longer, Fewer” soft policy, targeted at reducing the population gradually, by exhorting couples to marry later, wait longer before having children, and have fewer children. Thus, the one child policy was established as a means of controlling the mushrooming population and distributing resources more equally. Soon after, the two child policy was instated in 2015. It was amended to become the three child policy in 2021, due to the unforeseen social problems the restrictions created. The main reasons for discarding the policy primarily centralise on the growth of the ageing population.
China wrongly implemented the policy?
One of the main reasons the one child policy is sometimes deemed an error, is because of the effects it had on China’s population. Because not enough children were being born due to lowered fertility rates, the population is generally relatively old. There are estimates of around 100-400 million “lost people” in China – people whose births were prevented by the policy. The ageing population resulted in a great outbalance of seniors and retired people, in comparison to younger workers who drive the manufacturing sector. This, combined with the low retirement age in China (60 for men and 50 for women), led to a heavy dependency rate (a disproportionate ratio of working people to dependents/old people), a decline in highly skilled workers and wage inflation. This meant that the labour pool was not being replenished, due to the inadequacy of qualified workers. Additionally, retired people – the ones who in the future will comprise the majority of the population – live on pensions and are not obliged to pay income tax. The fertility rate has dropped to below population replacement levels of 1.7 children per woman, when it needs to be 2.1 in order to sustain the population. Consequently, there was an increased government spending in pension benefit costs and healthcare and retirement home costs, so as to meet the demands of the ageing population. At the cost of improving care for the older demographic, the quality of publicly funded healthcare systems deteriorated, and other social needs were neglected. Ultimately, this brought forth further constraints government finances, which were ironically supposed to have been alleviated by the one child policy.
Finding positives in the policy
In addition, the one child policy was not always enforced equally. For example: while citizens in urban areas were forced to adhere very closely to the policy, 19 provinces (covering 53% of the population) were entitled to the “one and a half”-child policy, intended to allow couples whose first child was a girl to have another child. This exemption stemmed from the inherent emphasis within Chinese tradition, of the male as the predominant sex. The preference for many families to give birth to a son, as opposed to a daughter, is a derivative of the entrenched concept in Chinese culture of 重男輕女 (“males take precedence over females”). As a repercussion of the policy, some families’ dissatisfaction at producing the “wrong” offspring led them to partake in female infanticide, or sex-selective abortions. Although these were outlawed in China, as with any form of abortion, they occasionally took place surreptitiously. The final ramification of the one child policy is gender disparity in China. According to Statista in 2022, the male to female ratio in China is currently at 104.7 men to 100 women; there are not enough women in the country to even out the ratio for some men to have families. The term for the group of older, single men (often from rural areas) affected by this phenomenon is 剩男, literally “leftover men”; or 光棍, literally “bare branches”. The excess of men in China who could never marry, as well as the social instability this engendered, was a primary reason for the Chinese government to now encourage people to have up to three children, in an attempt to restore the gender equilibrium.
Notwithstanding, the one child policy has induced several positive outcomes for China. Urbanisation has been lowered, allowing pollution and overcrowding levels to lower too, alleviating strains on funds and resources. 400 million unwanted births were also prevented. The one child policy has undoubtedly eased pressures on social services (such as schooling and healthcare), as well as reduced overcrowding and electricity consumption. The unemployment rate diminished to approximately 4%, as there was less competition in the job market, generating more employment opportunities for the rest of the population. With more of the country in employment, this helped resolve issues of food shortages, scarcity and poverty. In some instances, the one child policy also escalated the status of women, as families with a girl enrolled their daughter into school, improving her life chances and solidifying her role within the family as being a person of value. It is now the case that university participation rates in China for females exceed those of males. Researchers from Lanzhou University (Yujing Lu and Wei Du) claim that in 2020, the proportion of women among Chinese college students was 52.04%, a significant rise from its rate in 1978 of 24.1%. In sum, the one child policy was not exclusively harmful because it gave opportunities for women to gain traction as core members of society.
Also read: Lives and representations of Chinese Women
In conclusion, there have been numerous reasons for China’s abandonment of the one child policy, but the outstanding one remains the emergence of the aging population and the damaging implications this may have on China’s economy. Not only were China’s vital working class dwindling, leading to a fall in tax revenues, but China’s manufacturing industries also suffered as these industries relied on a large pool of cheap labour. Thus, the government was obligated to redact the policy, and adapt it to accommodate the needs of a continually enlarging population.
About the author …
I’m Lucy, a 21-year-old liberal arts student at Durham University, specializing in history and sociology, with a focus on Chinese 20th-century history. I’m also passionate about sociology, particularly in the context of mental health and psychiatry. Journalism, especially in areas like social justice and international affairs, is my future aspiration after graduation. Currently, I’m on a study abroad year at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, where I’m expanding my horizons in global politics. My goal is to combine my academic background with international relations theories to better grasp and analyze current events.
China’s One-Child Policy, implemented in 1979 to control population growth, was revoked in 2016 due to significant demographic challenges. The policy led to an aging population, a shrinking workforce, and a gender imbalance, as many families preferred male children. These issues threatened economic stability and growth. By allowing families to have two children, the Chinese government aimed to counter these negative effects, ensuring a more balanced demographic structure and a sustainable future. The shift also reflects changing social values and the recognition of individual rights, highlighting the need for adaptive policies in response to evolving national circumstances.